Highlights

From 2003 to 2009 the governments of Chad and Sudan engaged in a fierce proxy war waged through the provision of material support to each other’s armed opposition forces. The war culminated in armed opposition attacks on N'Djaména in April 2006 and February 2008 and an assault on Khartoum in May 2008. By mid-2009, however, repeated unsuccessful proxy attacks, major domestic political processes, and other factors led Khartoum and N'Djaména to begin a serious rapprochement. By mid-2010 it appeared that both countries had almost completely repudiated their proxy conflict.

Renouncing the Rebels: Local and Regional Dimensions of Chad–Sudan Rapprochement by Jérôme Tubiana reviews the specific circumstances of the recent Chad–Sudan rapprochement and the series of events that took place to bring this extremely divisive six-year conflict to a close. The study focuses specifically on the effects of the rapprochement on the armed opposition movements and the internal crises facing each country. Among its key findings are the following:

• The rapprochement has unquestionably increased stability in the region. The loss of external support to both Chadian and Darfur rebel groups reduces the immediate threat of armed attack in either country.
• Despite this increased stability, there are no political solutions to either the Chadian political crisis or the Darfur rebellion in sight, providing a combustible mixture that may once again ignite into collective violence.
• One of the main achievements of the détente is the weakening of the Chadian armed opposition to approximately 1,000 fighters as of early 2011. The main groups are now more divided than ever, having lost their sole backer, the Sudanese government.
• While Chad has expelled JEM from its territory, the group has not been disarmed and is managing to survive by expanding its areas of operations and recruitment—and could pose challenges to future relations between North and South Sudan. JEM’s primary external supporter is now Tripoli, at least until the February–March 2011 turmoil in Libya.
• The immediate impact of the rapprochement is not all positive: it has left dissatisfied combatants from both countries in the most unstable areas of the region, namely the Sudan–Chad–Central African Republic (CAR) tri-border area and the contested border between North and South Sudan, thereby adding to existing instability.

Download Renouncing the Rebels: Local and Regional Dimensions of Chad–Sudan Rapprochement

---

For more news and updates on Sudan, follow the HSBA on Facebook (click “LIKE”).