Highlights

The latest updates from the HSBA include information and analysis on armed groups and the risk of conflict in the Three Areas, as well as on armed entities in South Kordofan.

Armed Groups and the Risk of Conflict in the Three Areas 

The Three Areas, consisting of Abyei, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile, located along Sudan's volatile North–South border, bore the brunt of decades of armed conflict that ended in January 2005 with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Thanks to their strategic location and resource wealth, including oil, agricultural land, and water, these front-line areas were deemed critical to achieving long-term stability in Sudan and were awarded a special status in the CPA.

But with attention subsequently focused on Darfur, and then on South Sudan, the international community neglected the Three Areas once the CPA was concluded.

Fears that the still-unresolved status of Abyei—controlled by South Sudan's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) but within the political boundaries of North Sudan—could derail the peace process rose steeply in early 2011 as the region saw five major clashes in the wake of a vote for independence by South Sudan in January 2011. On 16 March, in a meeting with Thabo Mbeki, head of the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel, the SPLM claimed that northern forces were preparing to invade Abyei. It said Khartoum's army was massing in three locations—north of Abyei; south of Kadugli in South Kordofan state, to the east of Abyei; and in south–east Darfur, to the west of Abyei.

President Omar al-Bashir and his South Sudanese counterpart, Salva Kiir, met on 17 March and agreed that the UN peacekeeping force—the UN Mission in Sudan—would head an immediate investigation into the allegation.

The SPLM's charge came two days after it released documents it said proved that Khartoum was attempting to destabilize the South by arming southern militias opposed to the SPLM. The documents contained numerous errors and were dismissed by Khartoum, and some independent observers, as forgeries.

Reacting angrily, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) said the SPLM was attempting to distract attention from its own internal problems. It said northern forces were ready for 'jihad'.
Western military observers estimate that approximately 60,000 government troops are focused on the border in the Three Areas, with divisions comprising another 40,000 men held in reserve to the north.

Concern about the volatile border area grew during South Sudan's self-determination referendum. Although the referendum passed off peacefully, with no evidence of forward deployment by government forces, there was lethal violence in Abyei.

For details on the unresolved crisis in Abyei, see: www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures-armed-groups-three-areas.php

Armed Entities in South Kurdofan

Armed entities in South Kurdofan include: Joint Integrated Units, Popular Defence Forces, Tribal Militias, Central Reserve Police, Sudan Police Force, Popular Police, SPLA, SPLA Police, and Darfur Militias. For a detailed the latest developments concerning these groups, see: www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/pdfs/facts-figures/armed-groups/three-areas/HSBA-Armed-Groups-South-Kordofan.pdf

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The Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment is a multi-year research project, administered by the Small Arms Survey, which supports violence-reduction initiatives through its research and dissemination of information.

Watch out for additional updates in the near future.

All updates and new pages can be found on the HSBA’s Facts and Figures ‘Latest Updates’ page at: http://www.smallarmssurveysudan.org/facts-figures-latest-updates.php

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• More information on the Sudan HSBA website: www.smallarmssurveysudan.org

• Contact Sudan HSBA Project Manager Claire Mc Evoy