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18.9.2021 : 9:35 : +0200


Sudan update — Southern rebellions, the crisis in Abyei, the ongoing SPLA-Shilluk conflict in Upper Nile, and the LRA.

Recent updates from the Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) include new information and analysis on the growing Southern rebellions, the crisis in Abyei, the ongoing SPLA-Shilluk conflict in Upper Nile, and the Lord’s Resistance Army.

Emerging Armed Groups and Militias (April 2011)

Rebellions by former SPLA commanders are increasing in number, are increasingly coordinated, and now include reemerging wartime SSDF commanders.

In the aftermath of the South's peaceful self-determination referendum in January 2011, a 'permanent ceasefire' deal with the most important of these dissidents, George Athor, has fallen apart, with heavy fighting occurring in Jonglei state throughout February 2011.

George Athor has now claimed that several disparate insurrections were uniting under his command in an umbrella movement. Several of these commanders, including SAF general Bapiny Monituel and recently defected SPLA commander Peter Gadet, have confirmed that they are coordinating their rebellions with Athor. Gadet is a former high-ranking commander under Paulino Matiep in the South Sudan Defence Forces (SSDF), the Khartoum-aligned umbrella of local armed groups fighting in the SPLA in the latter phase of the civil war. Peter and his men joined the SPLA following the 2006 Juba Declaration.

With the SPLA facing multiple internal challenges, including growing frustration in its ranks over salaries, its ability to combat two rebellions led by two experienced, ex-SPLA guerilla fighters—George and Petermay be limited.

For more information on this situation, see:

Other new updates include:

NEW Peter Gadet's Rebellion (April 2011)
A report on commander Peter Gadet's rebellion in Unity state, his clashes with the SPLA in April, and ties to George Athor's rebellion.

Gabriel Tang-Ginye (April 2011)
Updated to report on the late April clash between Tang-Ginye's men and the SPLA and Tang-Ginye's subsequent 'surrender' to the SPLA.

George Athor (April 2011)
Updated to include coordination of General Bapiny Monituel (Unity State) with George's rebellion.

Crisis in Abyei (April 2011)
Updated to describe the clashes of late February and March in and around Abyei, the worst since 2008, the failure of recent security agreements, and the growing political stalemate.

SPLM/A-Shilluk Conflict in Upper Nile (April 2011)
Updated with more details on the clashes between Shilluk commander Olonyi and the SPLA in early March.

Lord's Resistance Army (April 2011)
Revised to highlight recent LRA attacks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

All web updates and new pages can be found on the HSBA’s Facts and Figures ‘Latest Updates’ page at:

The Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment is a multi-year research project, administered by the Small Arms Survey, which supports violence-reduction initiatives through its research and dissemination of information.

Watch out for additional updates in the near future.


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