Post-war security: a slippery slope

 

This war has already had ripple effects after its initial stage, so it is reasonable to expect a comparable pattern in the coming years. The ongoing phase of conflict starting after the February 2022 full-scale invasion brought the armed conflict to an entirely different level, with many more Ukrainians being directly affected and many more serving on the front lines. The risk that the post-conflict security situation will get much worse once hostilities eventually subside is significant on multiple levels. As seen from previous research,^[1] traumas afflicting former combatants correlate with mental problems, including substance abuse, which in turn increases the likelihood and severity of partner violence against women. Similarly, there is a risk—as the post-2014 homicide trends suggest—of increased criminal violence among rival gangs or targeting peaceful citizens.

The rally-round-the-flag effect is clearly noticeable when examining the levels of Ukrainians’ confidence in law enforcement—or any other state agency, for that matter. Trust in the police has recently seen a remarkable surge, especially when compared to pre-invasion statistics. In 2016 only 38 per cent of the population had favourable views of the police (Schroeder et al., 2019), a number that increased to 45 per cent by 2019 and reached 84 per cent in the winter of 2022–23 (see Figure 2). This surge in confidence may have already passed its peak, however, because it decreased to 73 per cent in the summer 2023 survey.

 

Crime victimization among the general population is indeed on the rise. The annual household victimization rate has climbed from 6.8 per cent in 2019 and 6.7 per cent in winter 2022–23 to 8.2 per cent by the summer of 2023. Notably, however, victims report that firearms play a decreasing role in the crimes that survey respondents fell victim to. In both 2022 and 2023 firearms were involved in just under 6 per cent of crime incidents that members of the surveyed households suffered, which is a marked decrease from the pre-invasion period, when they were involved in 14 per cent of cases (Schroeder et al., 2019).

A noteworthy development lies in how Ukrainians are adapting to the surge in criminal activity. While the proportion of those who prefer not to go out alone at night^[2] and those who limit how much cash they carry for security reasons has remained relatively stable, there has been a significant shift in the number of people who now carry some form of self-defence weapon to protect themselves from potential victimization (see Figure 3). This figure has more than tripled between 2011 (3.9 per cent) and the summer of 2023 (13.5 per cent). Currently, 16.6 per cent of adult males residing in the parts of Ukraine not controlled by Russian forces indicate that they carry some form of weapon for security purposes (Small Arms Survey, 2023). These typically are not live-firing firearms (3.6 per cent of men carry such weapons, compared to 0.5 per cent of women). Instead, they consist of traumatic weapons^[3] (total: 2.7 per cent; men: 4.2 per cent; women: 1.5 per cent) or other weapons (such as knives, pepper spray, etc.; total: 11.3 per cent; men: 12.7 per cent; women: 10.1 per cent).