Futuyo’s appointment as governor in 2020 was unpopular with the Avongara elite of the Azande, who have struggled to control Western Equatoria since 2005 (Craze, 2023c). The elite tarred Futuyo as a foreign interloper.[1] In response, Futuyo—previously a commander in the largely Azande ‘Arrow Boys’ movement (Small Arms Survey, 2016)—refashioned himself as a Balanda ethno-nationalist.[2] Political tensions between the SPLM/A-IO and the government’s coalition were transposed onto an ethnic distinction. The situation exploded after James Nando, one of Futuyo’s principal commanders, defected in 2020. Balanda forces under commander Angelo Davide clashed with Nando’s predominantly Azande troops in 2021, leaving hundreds of people dead (UNMISS and OHCHR, 2022). Kiir’s regime intervened, warehousing Nando in Juba. State politics nonetheless divided along ethnic lines.
In December 2024, Kiir mandated Nando—who he had released from house arrest—to clear SPLM/A-IO checkpoints on the Tambura–Wau Road. Controlling checkpoints has become a principal source of revenue for military groups in South Sudan, after the government stopped paying wages and disbursing petrodollars to loyalist militias (Craze, 2023a). The removal of checkpoints—a frequent plea from diplomats and humanitarians—has all too often masked the seizure of territory from the SPLM/A-IO.
Strikes against opposition checkpoints quickly morphed into a full-blown military campaign. In January 2025, SSPDF meant to deploy to eastern DRC returned from the border to Tambura and Nagero counties and attacked Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) cantonment sites. The situation intensified after Futuyo’s dismissal in February 2025. Nando’s forces assailed Futuyo’s residence and forced him to flee, before sweeping through Yambio, the state capital, and detaining opposition ministers. Several politicians subsequently joined the government; others are still missing. Simultaneously, Nando attacked Davide’s camps in northern Tambura. Futuyo fled Yambio for the SPLA-IO cantonment site in Li Rangu, pursued by Nando’s forces. Over the next two months, Nando followed Futuyo, seizing SPLA-IO bases wherever he went—first to Nadiangere and Sue in Yambio, and then to Nagero. Futuyo was to be found even if it meant razing much of Western Equatoria.
The opposition was taken aback by the speed of the assault and struggled to develop a militaryresponse. It was further weakened by defections that followed Futuyo’s removal. In early April 2025, approximately 500 soldiers and political personnel defected in Yambio and Nzara counties.[3] Further defections followed, with almost all the SPLA-IO Azande commanders declaring their loyalty to the government. Even Davide is rumoured to be working with Nando, although as of October 2025, he remains in hiding in the Nabanga forest on the Tambura–Wau Road.
Balanda in the SPLM/A-IO face an existential impasse. The 2021 violence that fractured the political compact in Western Equatoria led many in the Balanda community to see a monoethnic administrative area as their only way forward. Futuyo met these demands, declaring Nadiangere an administrative area in 2024. After his removal, his SPLM deputy, Daniel Badagbu Rimbasa, became the acting governor of Western Equatoria. Rimbasa, a Zande protégé of Jemma Nunu Kumba—the Avongara speaker of South Sudan’s Transitional National Legislative Assembly—rescinded Futuyo’s order in April 2025. This reversal came as Balanda were removed from state and church positions. Political marginalization occurred in the context of more visceral dislocations. Nando’s fighters killed and raped Balanda community members and looted healthcare facilities (UNMISS and OHCHR, 2022). Videos of SSPDF torture circulated widely among opposition fighters. For them, Nando is not fighting the opposition, but the Balanda community itself.
The SPLA-IO response has been equally brutal. The Balanda opposition, led by William Ngbori[4] in Nagero and Tambura, has raped women, looted healthcare facilities, and intentionally targeted farmers to disrupt the harvest. Like Nando’s forces, the SPLA-IO has carried out abductions and extrajudicial executions (UNMISS and OHCHR, 2022). Both sides aim to disrupt the opposing community’s capacity to survive. Ngbori’s forces fight for a monoethnic administrative area on land also claimed by the Azande, producing a zero-sum conflict for territory and power.
The opposition is pessimistic about its chances, as it lacks materiel and has failed to secure external support.[5] Most of its materiel has been taken from the SSPDF. The need to acquire ammunition has shaped its strategy. The SPLA-IO has focused on ambushes and lightning strikes on SSPDF barracks, withdrawing with anything it obtains. Given the SSPDF’s aerial dominance, the SPLA-IO is fighting a guerrilla war out of the state’s forests, focused on encircling government towns. SSPDF aerial bombardments of SPLA-IO positions in Western Equatoria have proved ineffective.
Conflict has also come to the east of Western Equatoria. After a brief sojourn in Western Bahr el Ghazal, Futuyo moved to the Greater Mundri area and Maridi county to avoid Nando’s forces. There, he opened a new front, launching rapid attacks on SSPDF bases—most notably in September 2025—when the opposition captured the Kediba garrison in Mundri East county. In the assault, the SPLA-IO were aided by Thomas Cirillo’s National Salvation Front (NAS), with which Oyet’s forces had recently signed an alliance. Although NAS had waned in recent years, it was partly revitalized in March 2025 when Cirillo reunited with John Kenyi Loburon and another experienced commander. While the SPLM/A-IO and NAS joint force quickly withdrew from Kediba, the two sides have worked together efficiently.
The war is at an impasse. The government cannot dislodge the opposition from the bush. Tambura, Nagero, and Yambio are surrounded, and the roads between them are perilous. Kiir’s regime relies on airstrikes and occasional army sallies from its embattled stockade-towns. Its position mirrors that of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) during the second Sudanese civil war between 1983 and 2005, with the opposition playing the part of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A).
[1] While Futuyo’s mother is a Zande—although not part of the Avongara elite—his father is a Balanda from Western Bahr el Ghazal.
[2] Author interview with Futuyo in Yambio, South Sudan, August 2023.
[3] Author interviews with sources in Yambio and Nzara, South Sudan, April to June 2025.
[4] Author telephone interviews with sources in Western Equatoria, South Sudan, June to September 2025.
[5] Author interviews with SPLM/A-IO commanders and politicians in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and Nairobi, Kenya, July to September 2025.
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