Key findings

• Government forces have provoked conflict in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal states.^[1] Disorder has enabled President Salva Kiir’s regime to inflict political defeats on its opponents in Juba, while fracturing opposition forces on the ground.
• In Western Equatoria, Kiir’s regime has outsourced its counterinsurgency to an Azande militia. The Azande Ani Kpi Gbi (AAKG) includes fighters from the Central African Republic (CAR) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It is engaged in a zero-sum conflict with Balanda forces led by Alfred Futuyo Karaba of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army-in-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO).
• The opposition has popular support in both states. It is hamstrung by an acute lack of materiel and is resigned to fighting a drawn-out guerrilla war against government forces with aerial superiority.
• Although populations in both states are weary of war, elite competition risks drawing them back into protracted conflict.

^[1] South Sudanese states and counties will be indicated at the first mention of a given state or county. This Situation Update will then use the state’s or county’s proper name only.