The Libyan civil wars in the mid-2010s catalysed the formation of cross-border networks of warlords, private military companies (PMCs), and state sponsors that continue to shape the regional war economy. In 2015, Haftar began consolidating power in anti-Islamist terms, becoming LNA commander in eastern Libya. The threat from the IS in Derna, Libya, meant Haftar had little trouble finding support from Egypt and the UAE, who provided funds and advisors for his campaign. By late 2015, Haftar turned his ambitions to Libya’s oil crescent, a move that required more men. For his 2016 campaign, Haftar hired SLA-AW and SLA-MM fighters.
Hilal, the former janjawid commander, also had men in Libya. In 2017, tensions peaked between the Mahamid tribe and Hemeti when Khartoum tried to integrate Hilal’s Border Guards into Hemeti’s RSF (UNSC, 2017). That November, Hilal was arrested, and his mining assets were seized and handed over to RSF. Hemeti was then given permission to sell gold, further cementing his relationship with the UAE.
Around this time, Prigozhin—encouraged by Emirati representatives—invested in Hemeti’s burgeoning business empire,[1] further expanding the Wagner Group’s existing network within Sudan’s formal security branches. In 2018, Prigozhin’s men worked closely with Sudan’s Ministry of Defence and the National Intelligence and Security Services to broker a peace deal—known as the Khartoum Accord—between the CAR government and 14 armed groups (UNSC, 2019). Wagner Group instructors had arrived in CAR to train the nation’s security service personnel, while companies tied to Prigozhin in Sudan received mining concessions.
In the summer of 2018, Prigozhin’s men began arriving in Libya. The Russian Federation’s military intelligence agency—which worked closely with Prigozhin—had marginalized other Russian security players in Haftar’s territory as early as 2016 (Weiss, Grozev, and Dobrokhotov, 2024).[2]
[1] Author interview with a source close to events, location withheld, February 2024.
[2] These facts were confirmed by author interviews with two sources close to the events, location withheld, February 2024.
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