Monitoring Civilian Firearms in Borderlands: A Framework For Trend Analysis And Estimation

Civilian firearms circulation in borderland and peripheral areas is difficult to monitor and quantify. Existing approaches often struggle to capture how firearms move through informal systems over time, particularly in environments shaped by cross-border flows, mobility, and localized security dynamics.

Our Briefing Paper Monitoring Civilian Firearms in Borderlands: A Framework for Trend Analysis and Estimation introduces a practical approach for monitoring directional change in civilian-held firearms. Rather than attempting to count weapons directly, it focuses on identifying local circulation patterns and producing informed estimate ranges grounded in observable indicators. 

The approach was recently tested in Northern Kenya, as explained in this related blog post, and is intended to support more adaptive and locally informed responses to civilian firearms dynamics.