Salva Kiir has ruled South Sudan for two decades. Now 74, in poor health, and having postponed national elections to 2026, the question of succession has been a steady feature of political debate in Juba. Vice-President Benjamin Bol Mel, backed by Kiir’s family after diverting state funds into their pockets, seemed to be the prime candidate. That abruptly changed, however, on 12 November, when Kiir dismissed Bol Mel and placed him under house arrest.