A Pause Not a Peace: Conflict in Jonglei and the GPAA

Submitted by Katie Lazaro on 15 May, 2023

Situation Update: South Sudan

A reshuffle of Jonglei’s state government is underway, precipitated by the out-going leadership’s inability to quell chronic armed violence and raiding in the state.. While the current rainy season will prevent large-scale raiding in the coming months, attacks on humanitarian convoys and low-level raiding continue, with women and children abducted.

Upper Nile Prepares to Return to War

Submitted by Katie Lazaro on 20 March, 2023

Situation Update: South Sudan

Upper Nile is on the precipice of renewed armed conflict. After a lull in violence in the past two months, armed groups are mobilizing for possible confrontation as Johnson Olonyi’s Agwelek forces reposition themselves near key ports on the White Nile, and SPLA-IO and Nuer White Army forces mobilize youth in northern Jonglei and southern Upper Nile.

'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 22 December, 2022

In Warrap state, home to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and much of the country's political and military elite, many hoped that the signing of a peace agreement in 2018 would bring an end to the violence that had scarred their country for the previous five years. Instead, in Warrap, violence intensified, and pitted communities against each other in increasingly brutal tit-for-tat attacks that targeted women, children, homes, and the very capacities of communities to sustain life. At the war's end, everything became war.

Violent Extremism Could Beckon in North-western Nigeria if Local Dynamics Are Ignored

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 5 December, 2022

'In January 2022, in a bid to stem a tide of violent attacks and kidnappings in north-western Nigeria, the government labelled the armed groups involved in the violence as "terrorists". The relationship between these groups and the internationally designated terrorist groups Boko Haram and Islamic State in West Africa Province in north-eastern Nigeria was unclear. But the decision illustrated growing concern that violent extremism might spread to the country's north-west. It also raised questions about the types of measures that were needed to prevent escalation of violence...'

The Periphery Cannot Hold: Upper Nile since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 14 November, 2022

Upper Nile is in chaos. A once durable alliance between the national government in Juba and the Padang Dinka in Malakal has given way to a much more uncertain situation, in which the regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir sets feuding elites against each other. Disorder has proved an effective tool of rule.

Perceptions, Vulnerabilities, and Prevention: Violent Extremism Threat Assessment in Selected Regions of the Southern Libyan Borderlands and North-Western Nigeria

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 1 November, 2022

The Sahel is home to a number of marginalized borderlands—such as Libya’s southern border region—characterized by the movement and activities of various armed groups, the absence of strong state institutions, and the prevalence of disparaged communities. Potentially, the combination of these factors makes the subregion more exposed to risk and individuals raised in such borderlands can be especially vulnerable to recruitment by violent extremist groups.

HSBA Archive

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 20 September, 2022

The archive of the Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) for Sudan and South Sudan project is a set of pages centralizing older updates and versions of HSBA documents and publications from the former HSBA website. All documents in the archive include a time stamp with the respective date of publication and are listed in chronological order. The archive is divided into the following categories:

Small Arms Survey Podcast #53: Women in Arms Trafficking

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 15 July, 2022

The roles of women in arms offences have been looked at from many perspectives, including violent extremism prevention, women offenders, political activism, or transnational crime in relation to drug trafficking and human trafficking. However, the roles of women in arms trafficking have rarely been considered through a small arms lens. Our report Missing or Unseen?

Small Arms Survey Podcast #52: Private Security Companies and Weapons & Ammunition Management

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 7 February, 2022

Weapons and ammunition management is a key consideration for any security provider handling arms. The International Code of Conduct for Private Security Service Providers lays out obligations for member and affiliate companies in terms of management of weapons, weapons training, and the management of material of war (articles 56 to 62).

Guided light weapons reportedly held by non-state armed groups, 1998-2013

Submitted by Olivia Denonville on 1 December, 2021

The increasingly sophisticated arsenals of guided light weapons held by non-state actors pose an international security threat. These include man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) and anti-tank guided weapons (ATGWs)—systems operable by a single user or a small crew, where the weapons’ missiles are either manually targeted or self-guided after launch. Such systems have been used by armed groups to attack commercial airlines, military aircraft, and governmental targets, as well as to degrade military and peacekeeping operations.