Situation Update: Port Sudan, Sudan

Although no official directive was made to relocate the capital to Port Sudan at the outbreak of war in April 2023, some government departments, diplomatic agencies, and international organizations have since set up shop in the eastern capital. This movement, however, seemingly ignores the fact that the city of Port Sudan does not possess the service competence, civil structure, or geopolitical stability to embrace a new capital for the fragile Sudanese state.

Once a hotbed of pro-Qaddafi resistance, Abu Salim is now a stronghold dominated by Abdelghani al-Kikli (widely known as ‘Ghaniwa’) and his Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). Ghaniwa has consolidated power over Abu Salim—the main southern gateway into the Libyan capital of Tripoli—through violence.

Situation Update: South Kordofan, Sudan

South Kordofan state is characterized by significant ethnic, religious, and cultural diversity with Nuban groups and Arab tribes. The ethnicization of the prolonged war in Sudan, however, has reopened divisions between groups and weakened traditional mechanisms for peace and conflict resolution, tearing the fragile social fabric that will not be easily repaired.
 

Since 2015, the coastal city of Zawiya has witnessed endemic violence, but never an all-out war between its main forces. Due to this, the city has become emblematic of Libya’s power struggles. Despite its significance, however, no in-depth studies exist on its armed groups and their evolution.
 

National actors working in small arms control and on women, peace, and security (WPS) share commitments to reduce suffering, maintain peace and security, and contribute to the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, while these cross references are increasingly commonplace in the international policy framework, this does not often translate into harmonized references in national action plans (NAPs) on WPS and small arms control.

Mali has faced more than a decade of armed violence perpetrated by extremists, resulting in thousands of victims among national and international armed forces, UN peacekeepers, and civilians.   

Following the Taliban’s assumption of control in Afghanistan in August 2021, uncertainty has persisted about the scale, scope, and specific elements of the arsenal it captured from the previous regime. A new report from the Small Arms Survey, based on hitherto unpublished official data, provides the most refined picture to date of the arsenals captured by the Taliban.

Situation Update: Ukraine

The previous intensive phase of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict (2014–15) triggered a short-lived but discernible upswing in violent criminal incidents in Ukraine. This causes concern for a potential greater future increase resulting from the current full-scale war. New analysis shows that Ukrainians are already experiencing increased crime levels—and are arming themselves for security.

Rin Tueny has achieved success in pacifying parts of Lakes state, including the Greater Rumbek area. His methods, however, have prioritised security and deterrence over human rights and legal norms. Consequently, there is little meaningful institutional oversight. While Lakes state may appear to be a ‘success’ story, a relapse into turmoil is possible.

Situation Update: Warrap state, South Sudan

Warrap is the birthplace of President Salva Kiir and the seat of his power. The state is home to many of the leading generals and politicians in his coalition, including—most notably—Akol Koor Kuc. Akol Koor controls Warrap state, and Governor Manhiem Bol Malek wields power by remaining in Koor’s good graces.  Manhiem has used many of his predecessor’s methods and, like his predecessor, he has not been successful in quelling dissent and intercommunal clashes.