New HSBA Situation Update on the rise and fall of Benjamin Bol Mel

Salva Kiir has ruled South Sudan for two decades. Now 74, in poor health, and having postponed national elections to 2026, the question of succession has been a steady feature of political debate in Juba. Vice-President Benjamin Bol Mel, backed by Kiir’s family after diverting state funds into their pockets, seemed to be the prime candidate. That abruptly changed, however, on 12 November, when Kiir dismissed Bol Mel and placed him under house arrest.

Wun Weng’s Victory: The Rise and Fall of Benjamin Bol Mel—a new Situation Update from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—examines Bol Mel’s rise to Vice-President, what led to such a fall from grace, and what this may herald for the future of South Sudan.