New HSBA Situation Update on the war in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal states
Clashes in South Sudan’s Western Bahr el Ghazal and Western Equatoria are not a breakdown of order; they fulfil a political purpose. This disorder has enabled President Salva Kiir’s regime to weaken its rivals in Juba, while fracturing opposition forces on the ground.
Making the Enemy: The War in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal States—a new Situation Update from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses South Sudan’s government counterinsurgency strategy in areas where the government has no legitimacy; instead of eliminating the opposition, the government will create an enemy—an insurgency it can then suppress.
Read: Making the Enemy: The War in Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal States
For more, check out:
- Wun Weng’s Victory: The Rise and Fall of Benjamin Bol Mel (December 2025)—a Situation Update that examines former Vice-President Bol Mel’s rise and fall
- On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan (March 2025)—a Briefing Paper that examines what led South Sudan to delay elections scheduled for December 2024 and considers the civil war
- The Republic of Kadamol: A Portrait of the Rapid Support Forces at War (January 2025)—a Briefing Paper that offers an insight into RSF recruitment strategies, war aims, and command and control problems
- Living with Lobong: Power, Gold, and the UPDF in Eastern Equatoria (November 2024)—a Situation Update that explores Lobong’s grasp on the state
- Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since (October 2023)—a Briefing Paper on the predatory nature of the political economy in South Sudan
- The Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) project page
- South Sudan outputs in our Resource Library
Other news from the Survey:
- New HSBA Situation Update on the rise and fall of Benjamin Bol Mel
- New Report on firearm-related violence and trafficking in the Caribbean
- Joint Release — New Report Calls For Coordinated, Multi-sectoral Action to Tackle Firearm-related Violence and Trafficking in the Caribbean
- New Situation Update on the global authorized trade in small arms
- New podcast on explosive precursor chemicals regulation
- New SANA Briefing Paper on security, ideology, and firearms in Lebanon and Tunisia