Despite the value the Dinka people place on cattle, some of their livestock are causing a headache for Kiir. In 2022, large herds from Jonglei state moved into Eastern Equatoria state, accompanied by heavily armed pastoralists. These herds destroyed farmland, with the pastoralists clashing with agriculturalists in Magwi, leading to thousands of people being displaced. Equatorian complaints about the encroachment of Dinka herds are long-standing and increased after the signing of the CPA. These herds have also proved problematic for Kiir, who seeks Equatorian support in the elections postulated for 2024. The situation is especially unwelcome for Kiir’s regime because the herds largely belong to high-ranking Bor Dinka politicians and SSPDF commanders—the principal rivals of the Bahr el Ghazal Dinka. Erroneous claims have been made that climate change explains the migration of these large herds (Eberle and Boswell, 2023). The herds are effectively safe-deposit boxes for wealth accumulated by the Bor Dinka elite. They are guarded by young cattle guards who receive regular resupplies of materiel from military sources.[21] ‘What sort of cattle guards’, one disgruntled Baka community elder asked, ‘come with machine guns?’[22] The clashes that ensue when these herds move cannot be explained by climate change, but rather by the politics of capital accumulation by the elite, and its ability to use violence with relative impunity.
In Eastern Equatoria state, the political problem of the cattle herders received a political solution. The populist SPLM governor of the state, Louis Lobong Lojore, used his security forces to remove the herders in November 2022. Some returned to Jonglei, but many went into Central Equatoria state, where the same scenario of violence and displacement played out in February 2023, leaving dozens dead and tens of thousands displaced. The SPLM governor of Central Equatoria state, Emmanuel Adil Anthony, then forced the herders out of the state and into Western Equatoria state, the only one of the three Equatorian states with an SPLM-IO governor.
While herders in Central and Eastern Equatoria states disrupt both agriculturalists and Kiir’s electoral chances, in Western Equatoria state they damage Futuyo’s credibility. Although Futuyo ordered the cattle herders to leave Mundri West county in June 2023, they remained there throughout the height of the rainy season. Moro elders complained that the cattle destroyed crops and that the pastoralists bought up all the food in the market, raising prices.[23] Herders have also destroyed bee hives and attacked the local population. The fear consistently raised by communities in Greater Mundri is that the Dinka pastoralists intend to stay, creating a ‘greater Bor’.
These fears, combined with the pastoralists’ presence in Western Equatoria, could result in serious violence. In 2005, Dinka pastoralist encroachment in the state led to reprisal attacks against Dinka residents in Yambio that left hundreds dead. The ‘Nyarango Boys’, which were a Moro equivalent of the Arrow Boys, had the explicit intention of resisting Dinka encroachment, and clashed with pastoralists during the CPA period in Mvolo county. The east of Western Equatoria state has long been supportive of the SPLM-IO, and clashes between the people of Greater Mundri and Dinka pastoralists could quickly take on political dimensions given that the herders are backed by the SSPDF, and the herds are in some cases owned by high-ranking generals. If SSPDF Division 6, stationed in Maridi, became involved in the fighting, it could be the touch paper for a more general conflagration in Western Equatoria, especially if the Avongara elite used it as an excuse to move against the SPLM/A-IO.
[21] Author telephone and in-person interviews with Bor Dinka politicians and cattle guards, February–September 2023.
[22] Author interview with Baka community elders, Yambio town, August 2023.
[23] Author interviews with Moro elders, Yambio town, August 2023.
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