A reshuffle of Jonglei’s state government is underway, precipitated by the out-going leadership’s inability to quell chronic armed violence and raiding in the state.. While the current rainy season will prevent large-scale raiding in the coming months, attacks on humanitarian convoys and low-level raiding continue, with women and children abducted.
Upper Nile is on the precipice of renewed armed conflict. After a lull in violence in the past two months, armed groups are mobilizing for possible confrontation as Johnson Olonyi’s Agwelek forces reposition themselves near key ports on the White Nile, and SPLA-IO and Nuer White Army forces mobilize youth in northern Jonglei and southern Upper Nile.
In Warrap state, home to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and much of the country's political and military elite, many hoped that the signing of a peace agreement in 2018 would bring an end to the violence that had scarred their country for the previous five years. Instead, in Warrap, violence intensified, and pitted communities against each other in increasingly brutal tit-for-tat attacks that targeted women, children, homes, and the very capacities of communities to sustain life. At the war's end, everything became war.
Upper Nile is in chaos. A once durable alliance between the national government in Juba and the Padang Dinka in Malakal has given way to a much more uncertain situation, in which the regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir sets feuding elites against each other. Disorder has proved an effective tool of rule.
The archive of the Human Security Baseline Assessment (HSBA) for Sudan and South Sudan project is a set of pages centralizing older updates and versions of HSBA documents and publications from the former HSBA website. All documents in the archive include a time stamp with the respective date of publication and are listed in chronological order. The archive is divided into the following categories:
The Small Arms Survey’s Mapping Actors and Alliances Project for South Sudan (MAAPSS) held its seventh closed-door webinar on Thursday 4 November.
The Small Arms Survey’s Mapping Actors and Alliances Project for South Sudan (MAAPSS) held its sixth closed-door webinar on Thursday 26 August.
The Small Arms Survey’s Mapping Actors and Alliances Project for South Sudan (MAAPSS) held its fifth closed-door webinar on Thursday 29 July.
The webinar looked back at the ten years since South Sudanese independence and discussed what the future will bring. Joshua Craze moderated the discussion between Alan Boswell (International Crisis Group), Brian Adeba (The Sentry), David Deng (Human rights lawyer), Nyagoah Tut Pur (Human Rights Watch) and Ferenc Dávid Markó (Small Arms Survey).
The Small Arms Survey’s Mapping Actors and Alliances Project for South Sudan (MAAPSS) held its fourth closed-door webinar on Thursday 10 June 2021.
The Small Arms Survey’s Mapping Actors and Alliances Project for South Sudan (MAAPSS) held its third closed-door webinar on Thursday 20 May.
Joshua Craze, Saadia Aleem, and David Deng discuss protection issues raised by recent returns in Upper Nile, how returns more broadly should be organized in South Sudan in the run-up to the proposed census in 2022, the political issues such movements raise, and what role international organizations have in supporting such returns.