'And Everything Became War': Warrap State since the Signing of the R-ARCSS

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 22 December, 2022

In Warrap state, home to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and much of the country's political and military elite, many hoped that the signing of a peace agreement in 2018 would bring an end to the violence that had scarred their country for the previous five years. Instead, in Warrap, violence intensified, and pitted communities against each other in increasingly brutal tit-for-tat attacks that targeted women, children, homes, and the very capacities of communities to sustain life. At the war's end, everything became war.

Identity and Self-determination: The Fertit Opposition in South Sudan

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 14 January, 2021

The Fertit community is a minority group in South Sudan that inhabit the former Western Bahr el Ghazal state. Out of it grew an opposition that came to form one of the many groups to take up arms against the Dinka dominated government in Juba and align with Riek Machar’s opposition coalition, the SPLA-IO. 

Conflict and Cooperation: Transitions in Modern Ethiopian-Sudanese Relations

Submitted by Lionel Kosirnik on 12 January, 2021

The Nile River bears considerably on inter-state relations among the countries through which it flows; with struggles over control of its waters driving the political undercurrents of the region. Ethiopia and Sudan exemplify such relations, shaped as much by the ebb and flow of the Nile as the rise and fall of the regimes that have governed them. This Briefing Paper by the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project analyzes this relationship and its place in a politically dynamic and evolving region.

Capital of Militias: Tripoli's Armed Groups Capture the Libyan State

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on 24 November, 2020

The history of Tripoli after the fall of Qaddafi is one of conflict, shifting control, fractured alliances, and the quest for power and influence. Central among the players in this quest have been the militias controlling the capital’s territory. In the past two years, that control has consolidated into the hands of a cartel: four militias whose military dominance, influence in government, and power over the resources of the state is unprecedented.

Too Close for Comfort: How Algeria Faces the Libyan Conflict

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on 24 November, 2020

The conflict that toppled former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi in 2011 has affected Algeria in various ways. As a neighbour and a regional power, Algeria has largely looked to dialogue and engagement, playing a key role in international efforts to stabilize Libya. But the chaos that often characterizes its neighbour has moved Algiers to modify some of its long-held principles to ensure its interests are protected.

A Challenging State: Emerging Armed Groups in Egypt

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on 24 November, 2020

An unprecedented and complex Islamist insurgency has raged in Egypt since the 2013 military coup that overthrew the government formed by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Salafi-Jihadi attacks of Islamic State – Sinai Province (IS-SP) are well known. But another strain of pro-violence Islamist armed action aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has recently evolved in the Nile Valley, home of 97 per-cent of the country’s population. This new strand of Jihadi belief represents what can perhaps best be described as a type of MB-Jihadism, or Ikhwani-Jihadism.

Southern Libya Destabilized: The Case of Ubari

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on 24 November, 2020

Ubari, an oasis town in southern Libya’s Fezzan region, is home to members of both the Tuareg and Tubu tribes. These two tribes dominate this corner of Libya and contiguous desert regions in neighbouring countries. For over a century, relations between these tribes were peaceful, governed by an 1893 treaty known as the ‘Midi Midi’. The 2011 revolution in Libya did more than simply bring down the Qaddafi regime; it also brought down the intricately structured relationships of patronage and power that had kept the region firmly under central government control.

Rogue Rocketeers: Artillery Rockets and Armed Groups (Working Paper 19)

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on 24 November, 2020

For decades, armed groups around the world have converted rockets intended for use with large, vehicle-mounted launchers into improvised light weapons. Indiscriminate and lethal, these weapons have killed and injured thousands of people in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere.

Yet, despite the demonstrated threat posed by artillery rockets, they have received significantly less attention from policy-makers than conventional small arms and light weapons do.

Documenting Weapons in Situations of Armed Conflict: Methods and Trends (Research Note 42)

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on 24 November, 2020

The proliferation and misuse of small arms, light weapons, and their associated ammunition in situations of armed conflict have been important concerns for the international community for the last 20 years. Yet it is only more recently that specific knowledge about the models and origins of the small arms circulating in conflict zones has emerged.

Following the Headstamp Trail: An Assessment of Small-calibre Ammunition Documented in Syria (Working Paper 18)

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on 24 November, 2020

These two publications, from the Security Assessment in North Africa, offer insight into the situation in Syria, investigating the variety and availability of small arms ammunition documented in the country, and the presence and role of foreign fighters in the ongoing hostilities.