On 28 November 2025, the Small Arms Survey's HSBA project hosted a webinar discussing South Sudan’s power struggles, emerging conflicts, and the growing uncertainty surrounding Kiir’s succession.

The panelists included Bol Gatkouth Kol, James Kunhiak Muorwel, and Joshua Craze.

Moderated by Khristopher Carlson, HSBA Project Coordinator.

After almost two years of war, Sudan is in the grip of a humanitarian and political catastrophe. A conflict between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to devastate the country. In recent months, the RSF has lost ground, and its efforts to create a government seem likely to come to naught. But what is the RSF, and what can learning about the paramilitary organization tell us about the future of Sudan?

Since the outbreak of civil war in Sudan in April 2023, there have been rising concerns about the physical
security of oil infrastructure and the sector’s overall operational capacity. Control of the country’s oil infrastructure has been split among different armed groups. The national military, Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), has retained control of the export terminal in the Red Sea port of Port Sudan. At the same time, a rival armed group, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), seized—and now maintain—command of Sudan’s primary refinery in Khartoum and at least one pumping station.