No one could oppose Bol Mel as long as he retained Kiir’s support. The SSPDF elite are dependent upon Kiir’s largesse, and Bol Mel had found favour with the one group that Kiir cannot dismiss: his family. The group around the first lady, Mary Ayen, her brother, Gregory Vasili, and Kiir’s children, notably Adut, forms a coherent lobby that is interested in expanding its economic interests, ranging from SSPDF procurement to gold mining (The Sentry, 2024). Bol Mel, who shared many economic concerns with Gregory and Adut, was thought to be part of this lobby.
By July 2025, divisions had emerged between ‘the family’ and a group Juba politicians had nicknamed ‘the hijackers’, centred around Bol Mel, whose desire for the presidency worried Adut. In July 2025, Kiir’s family sent an envoy to Uganda to ask Saleh to shift his support to Adut. The meeting was facilitated by members of the Acholi community and involved Salim Saleh and Akot Lual. The trip alarmed Bol Mel, who appealed to Kiir to have Akot Lual arrested. Adut interceded. Shortly after Kiir declared her the special presidential envoy on special programmes on 20 August 2025, Akot Lual was released from jail.
This was only the first skirmish between the family and the hijackers. Bol Mel attempted to move the Tiger Division out of the Giada barracks but without success. He then tried to have the head of the division, Philip Nyuon Nyuon, dismissed. In August, Bol Mel managed to remove Nyuon Nyuon—who was replaced by one of Bol Mel’s allies, Deng Akeen—but after only six hours an internal revolt by the family saw Nyuon Nyuon restored to his position. Some of Bol Mel’s hijackers subsequently found themselves barred from the presidential palace, with Bang Wieu removed as the head of the presidential protection unit and Mawien Garang dismissed as the president’s personal assistant. The skirmishes continued into October, when Nyuon Nyuon was finally dismissed and replaced by Valentino Baak Makuei.
With Kiir’s family firmly set against Bol Mel, his allies began to be removed from power. On 3 November, Nyuon Nyuon was once again reinstated as the commander of Tiger Division. Kiir also dismissed Madut Dut Yel, a Bol Mel ally, as his security advisor, and brought back Tut Kew Gatluak, partly to limit Bol Mel’s influence. Other Bol Mel allies were fired, and some of his opponents restored to important positions. Africano Mande was appointed as minister of presidential affairs, following the dismissal of Chol Ajongo Mawut.[1] Bol Mel’s voice in Kiir’s bureau, Rita Kiden Lotua, the presidential office manager, was made ambassador to Rwanda and replaced by Marina Ayen Gregory Vasili, consolidating the family’s control over the Office of the President.[2]
Crisis meetings on 9 November between Bol Mel’s supporters and members of the family failed to produce an agreement. On 12 November, Bol Mel was fired as vice-president and first deputy chairperson of the SPLM. He was also stripped of his rank as general in the NSS, demoted to private, and then dismissed. The remainder of his close allies were also fired: Simon Akuei Deng was removed from the South Sudan Revenue Authority; Paul Logale Jumi (Bol Mel’s father-in-law) was dismissed from his position as secretary-general of the SPLM; and Addis Ababa Othou was replaced as governor of the Bank of South Sudan by Yohanes Samuel Kosta.
Removing Bol Mel proved to be even easier than getting rid of Paul Malong (Boswell, 2019) or Akol Koor Kuc (Craze, 2025), both tasks that Kiir carried off with aplomb. Kiir made the decision abruptly. Reportedly, Museveni and Muhoozi were not informed about the dismissal, which was met with consternation in Kampala.[3] The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) were also not informed, and reacted angrily: Bol Mel had been central to several important business ties to the Sudanese paramilitary group.[4] Kiir did reportedly inform the UAE during his visit at the end of October.[5] Bol Mel has neither military forces nor a political constituency. His economic role was functional. He was thus replaceable, and becomes just the latest in a long line of politicians outsmarted by Kiir.
On 17 November, Kiir continued to dismiss Bol Mel allies, including Joseph Geng Akech, the justice minister widely seen as pushing for Machar’s ongoing trial. In an abrupt about-turn, Kiir also announced that Igga would be reinstated as vice-president for the Economics Cluster. Igga, a veteran SPLM politician, is not thought of as a viable successor to Kiir. Akech’s dismissal led to widespread rumours that Machar would soon be released from jail, as his principal opponent, Bol Mel, had been dismissed.
It is unlikely that it will be possible to plan for succession. In September 2025, one well-connected politician described the presidential palace as rife with rumours and suspicion, and observed that orders and appointments were often countermanded the day they were made, to mollify one group or another, or to prevent outright conflict.[6] The delirious musical chairs in Juba, where politicians barely have enough time to sit down before their cabinet seats are snatched away, serve to keep everyone uncertain, and thus prevent them from posing a threat to Kiir’s regime. But even if Kiir is not thinking of succession, it will nonetheless happen. We are all mortal. ‘In that case,’ one high-ranking politician said, ‘the successor will be decided by whoever hears about Kiir’s death first. That’s why we are all competing for his attention. To say the death rites.’[7]
[1] Chol Ajongo Mawut is a Luo from Northern Bahr el Ghazal, part of the same family as the state governor and an ally of Bol Mel.
[2] Marina is Gregory Vasili’s daughter. The executive director in the Office of the President was also changed, with James Deng Wal appointed and Bol Mel’s ally, Ajing Deng, removed.
[3] Author interviews with South Sudanese politicians, Kampala, November 2025.
[4] Author interviews with RSF personnel, Kampala, November 2025.
[5] Discussions by telephone with politicians, Juba, November 2025.
[6] Telephone discussions with a senior SPLM politician, Juba, September 2025.
[7] Author interview, name withheld, Juba, October 2025.
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